How to trade the overs market

How to trade the overs market

Hey Betting Nation, so a lot of have been asking about how I trade the overs market, so I thought id spend a couple of hours detailing how I trade the overs market in this mini guide.

We do have a podcast episode on this, heres the link – https://thebettingguy.co.uk/2018/02/how-to-trade-the-overs-goal-markets-on-betfair/

So here we go … Let me know if this helps –

As of the 27th February 2018 in the Premier League 2017 – 2018 season –

92% of games have 1 or more goals scored
74% of games have 2 or more goals scored
51% of games have 3 or more goals scored
31% of games have 4 or more goals scored
15% of games have 5 or more goals scored

Its really interesting stuff reading those stats isn’t it. We don’t have to do a lot to be profitable!

With this trading strategy … The Super Duper Goals Strategy ? … We would expect to have a profitable trade at least 80% of the time, with time and experience you would be looking for at least a 90% success rate.

Super Duper Goal Scoring Strategy … Yep thats the official name ?

Research –

– So Firstly we find a match where we expect goals goals goals!

– We focus on the over 2.5 goals or over 1.5 … For this example we are looking at over 1.5 goals

– I look at the teams in question previous games, I look at the home sides last 5 home games and I look at the away sides last 5 away games … Im looking for goals in these matches

– If its a league game we are looking at, I focus on the previous league games. I don’t take into consideration the the cup games.

– The very last thing I do is I log on to Footballformlabs.com, it is a paid for website but it is well worth it and if you put in the discount code thebettingguy at check out you get 20% off.

– On football form labs I look to see how the teams in question have played against a similar rivals. For example if the home side is a top 6 side and the away side is a bottom 6 team I want to see how each teams preforms against similar rivals … These reports are so effective and easy to create.

– So many people leave this last criteria out … We must compare like for like. Put in the extra effort that 99% of people arent willing to do … This will elevate your results to the top 1%

Entry Points –

– Split your stake into 4 quarter

– So, £100 becomes 4 X £25 stakes

– We do not enter the market before the game kicks off… Waiting gives us the edge

– We check our notes before entering … i.e. At what time does the home and away team score the majority of their opening goals (simple stats easy to find) … Let these stats guide you to an entry point/time…. Remember the worst that can happen by entering to late is there is a goal and we don’t trade, meaning we don’t win but more importantly we don’t lose

– We enter the market when the game is hotting up i.e. the first significant attacking play … If aligned with our notes on the game

– We then enter the market by backing over 1.5 goals for 25% of our stake … i.e £25 if our full stake is £100

– We then place the other remaining back bets in the market every 0.25 of a point

– So for example if our first quarter entered the market at 1.5 our orders would look like this –
Back £25 at 1.5
Back £25 at 1.75
Back £25 at 2
Back £25 at 2.26 (can’t do 2.25)

Exit Strategy –

– Goal scored – We exit for a level stake profit

– If there is no goal around the 75th minute for a loss … It does happen. Pre define you exit point and STICK TO IT!

Hope this helps Betting Nation, its a simple strategy that lots of people exicute very successfully … Have a play around with it but remember keep stakes small until you feel confident.

Lots of man love

DMB

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Vlad says:

Hello. First of all thank you for the content it has been very informative and I am learning quite a lot. Second of all I have been keeping my own records concerning some leagues this season. For all of them I use Betfair Exchange prices that are on offer the morning before the game starts, from about 9 A.M. (With these conditions in over 90% of cases you can get better odds even before the game starts). For the Premier League with 304 games, if someone had staked 10 units on every single game for Over 1.5 the loss would be 83.91 units (considering a 6.5% commission which is what I pay on Betfair). For the Over 2.5 the loss would be 103.83 units.
Average odds recorded by me for Over 1.5 in Premier League this season is 1.33 and for Over 2.5 is 2.01. But if you could get 5 to 10 ticks better then the results would improve. And of course match selection will help. For example Leicester at home has had only one game with fewer than 2 goals and 8 games with exactly 2 goals. So backing Leicester for Over 1.5 in home games would have won 14 out of 15 games and a profit of 31.23 units for 10 units stake (for odds before kick-off). Burnley at home on the other hand had 8 games with fewer than 2 goals out of 15 played. Their average odds for Over 1.5 was a little higher at 1.45, but still the loss would have been at approximately 50 units.
Good luck with everything and I look forward to more podcasts and articles.

Luke says:

What do you suggest if a goal scored before each of your 25% trades have been matched? C/O or carry on adding the remaining 25% trades as the back price increases (again in .25 increments).

Cheers

(Love the pod!)