How to trade the overs market
Hey Betting Nation, so a lot of have been asking about how I trade the overs market, so I thought id spend a couple of hours detailing how I trade the overs market in this mini guide.
We do have a podcast episode on this, heres the link – https://thebettingguy.co.uk/2018/02/how-to-trade-the-overs-goal-markets-on-betfair/
So here we go … Let me know if this helps –
As of the 27th February 2018 in the Premier League 2017 – 2018 season –
92% of games have 1 or more goals scored
74% of games have 2 or more goals scored
51% of games have 3 or more goals scored
31% of games have 4 or more goals scored
15% of games have 5 or more goals scored
Its really interesting stuff reading those stats isn’t it. We don’t have to do a lot to be profitable!
With this trading strategy … The Super Duper Goals Strategy ? … We would expect to have a profitable trade at least 80% of the time, with time and experience you would be looking for at least a 90% success rate.
Super Duper Goal Scoring Strategy … Yep thats the official name ?
– So Firstly we find a match where we expect goals goals goals!
– We focus on the over 2.5 goals or over 1.5 … For this example we are looking at over 1.5 goals
– I look at the teams in question previous games, I look at the home sides last 5 home games and I look at the away sides last 5 away games … Im looking for goals in these matches
– If its a league game we are looking at, I focus on the previous league games. I don’t take into consideration the the cup games.
– The very last thing I do is I log on to Footballformlabs.com, it is a paid for website but it is well worth it and if you put in the discount code thebettingguy at check out you get 20% off.
– On football form labs I look to see how the teams in question have played against a similar rivals. For example if the home side is a top 6 side and the away side is a bottom 6 team I want to see how each teams preforms against similar rivals … These reports are so effective and easy to create.
– So many people leave this last criteria out … We must compare like for like. Put in the extra effort that 99% of people arent willing to do … This will elevate your results to the top 1%
Entry Points –
– Split your stake into 4 quarter
– So, £100 becomes 4 X £25 stakes
– We do not enter the market before the game kicks off… Waiting gives us the edge
– We check our notes before entering … i.e. At what time does the home and away team score the majority of their opening goals (simple stats easy to find) … Let these stats guide you to an entry point/time…. Remember the worst that can happen by entering to late is there is a goal and we don’t trade, meaning we don’t win but more importantly we don’t lose
– We enter the market when the game is hotting up i.e. the first significant attacking play … If aligned with our notes on the game
– We then enter the market by backing over 1.5 goals for 25% of our stake … i.e £25 if our full stake is £100
– We then place the other remaining back bets in the market every 0.25 of a point
– So for example if our first quarter entered the market at 1.5 our orders would look like this –
Back £25 at 1.5
Back £25 at 1.75
Back £25 at 2
Back £25 at 2.26 (can’t do 2.25)
Exit Strategy –
– Goal scored – We exit for a level stake profit
– If there is no goal around the 75th minute for a loss … It does happen. Pre define you exit point and STICK TO IT!
Hope this helps Betting Nation, its a simple strategy that lots of people exicute very successfully … Have a play around with it but remember keep stakes small until you feel confident.
Lots of man love